We can’t help ourselves when it comes to obsessing about the upcoming battle for Senator Shapleigh’s seat. A seat, Shapleigh said two weeks ago, that he isn’t interested in occupying anymore. I feel it’s important that all you armchair campaign managers have all the info I can give you so you’ll know how to call the race before it even starts.
The two big names in the mix right now are Representative Norma Chavez and County Attorney Jose Rodriguez. Nobody has filed because it’s not time to file. Nobody has named their treasurers and filed their paperwork because it would be too early to do so. Prospective candidates who are seeking office as an affiliate with a registered political party have to wait until December 3, 2009 to file for office. Their last day to put in their paperwork is January 4, 2010. Right now everything being said is simply based on intentions and those intentions can change. To borrow a line from Grammy winning artist, Richard Marx, “It don’t mean nothing, till you sign it on the dotted line.” (I’m officially the first person to interject Richard Marx into El Paso politics – I can smell and Conquistador award in my future)
Let’s assume for the purposes of this article that they are both intending on running for the seat. And let’s assume neither of them have an ace in the hole – pictures of their opponent punting puppies or other career ending information. We’ll adhere to Occam’s Razor theory here and assume nothing more than we need to.
The Breakdown
One pure advantage for Rodriguez is that he has run for a county wide seat before and Chavez has not. This means that more voters have seen his name on the ballot in the past. The majority of the county has never seen Chavez’s name on Election Day. This gives Rodriguez an almost incumbent-like quality to his candidacy. This is not to say that Chavez does not have tremendous name recognition. However her name recognition wasn’t always built on positive news.
If you judge El Pasoan’s past election behavior, you can see that they like voting for people over and over again. This is how names like Reyes, Shapleigh, Moreno, Pickett, Chavez, Esparza and Haggerty all have succeeded in having decade long careers as politicians – once people start voting for them, they don’t stop. It won’t matter to many voters that Jose Rodriguez’s name is under a different heading this time around.
It’s well known that Chavez is a tireless worker and will not stop campaigning until the last vote can be cast. That is always an advantage for anyone running for office. Chavez is experienced when it comes to organizing people on her behalf. Doors will be knocked on, signs will be posted and parties in the park will be held. Chavez wins the ground game every day of the week in this race. But is it enough?
Cars run on gas, kids run on sugar and campaigns run on money. The rule of thumb is that he who raises the most money wins. That’s just a rule of thumb, however. Dee Margo has out-raised his opponents twice and not won. That does not take away from the fact that money is needed to run and the more money you have the better run you can make for office.
Rodriguez will undoubtedly get the support of lawyers both in Austin and in El Paso. The trial lawyers are a powerful lobby and spend lots of cash to have their peers among the elected at the state and federal level. He will also enjoy the support of the business community that has supported Chavez in the past, but not received much in return for their investment. Last session’s embarrassing fights with other members of the delegation in public coupled with a dismal legislative session for Chavez have put her out of favor with the money men in El Paso. The word is that they are willing to roll the dice on new blood.
Chavez can use the small donor program model perfected by President Barrack Obama’s campaign team in the 2008 election. That model could help her raise the cash to stay in a race that could rely heavily on expensive TV and radio advertisements. Chavez does not have an industry base like the trial lawyers to fall back on. Her best hope for cash will be that most associations like the Texas Association of Realtors have a “friendly incumbent” rule which directs them to only give campaign dollars to incumbents. She’s the only “incumbent” in the race if you want to use the word loosely and relate it to service at the state level.
The real challenge for both candidates will be getting the party stalwarts to support them in a year where all the statewide action will be decided in the Republican primary. Since the Democrats have offered up candidates for governor and senate that can be described as lethargic at best, the Republican primary is where all the action will be. You must also remember that El Paso has some kind of weird crush on Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison who is running for governor this year. She has faired extremely well in the past her in El Paso even though she’s a Republican. Expect plenty of voters to crossover to vote for her in the primary.
What I’m getting at here is simple – moderate democrats will realize that their chance at picking the next governor will come in the March primary and not during the November general election. Valuable primary votes for either Rodriguez or Chavez will be lost to an effort to pick between Governor Perry and Senator Hutchison. If you are still under the impression that just because Obama didn’t lose by 90 points in Texas during the Presidential election that Texas is going Democrat, please check yourself into a hospital – you’ve been unsafely delusional for much too long.
When it’s up to the party stalwarts to pick a darling in this race it will come down to who has kept all the factions the happiest. Rodriguez is squarely aligned with Senator Shapleigh, while Chavez is the queen of her own faction.
Chavez is no friend of those who supported longtime house representative, Paul Moreno. There is also bitterness between her and Democratic Party Chair, Danny Anchondo stemming from several feuds, with her support for Obama and his support for Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary being the biggest one. Chavez is supported by the Tejano Democrats, but it is unclear how powerful they are in comparison to the many other factions of the Democratic Party in El Paso. I’m sure each faction will declare its dominance in the comments section below.
Rodriguez has the advantage of not being a very controversial figure in the local Democratic Party schmorgasborg. Although he’s considered to be firmly in Shapleigh’s camp, he’s never made any enemies inside the party until he got crossways with Chavez over the ethics bill that was slated to be carried by Rep. Marquez. Other than that ugly scene, Rodriguez has enjoyed a rather comfortable ride on the local Democratic bus.
The key parts of town for each candidate will be different.
Chavez needs to make a good showing in Northeast El Paso and in West El Paso. Neither of these districts work like the Lower Valley when it comes to elections (and yes, I wrote “Lower Valley” on purpose. I refuse to play a ridiculous game of political correctness when it’s obvious that the word “lower” refers to the area’s elevation and not the resident’s social, political or financial class). Chavez will have to figure out how the game is played in these two parts of town and get good at that game very quickly.
Rodriguez must take votes below the freeway where Chavez has campaigned and won for years. If he can shed the “lawyer in a nice suit” image while he’s campaigning down there, he can pick up votes. However, women pretty much own the south side of the freeway in the recent past. Just look at all the ladies who have won decisively down there and it’s not hard to see why Chavez will be hard to beat in that area.
Rodriguez must also be careful on the eastside of town above the freeway where Representative Joe Pickett enjoys a very good standing among those voters. Appearances would have Pickett being a bigger fan of Chavez than he is of Shapleigh. This could mean an endorsement problem for Rodriguez in that part of town.
The key here is that there is no one part of town that holds the key to the election. The candidates have to have good showings in all parts of town in order to win.
There is no secret strategy to win this primary. Each candidate must play to their strengths while learning a new move or two associated more with their opponent’s style than their own. Both candidates will have to show they can diversify. The winner will be the one who does it best.
