Let’s pretend it’s the late evening of Nov. 4. The most drawn-out election in American history is finally reaching its end.
Both candidates have already picked up key states. McCain grabbs Virginia, Florida and Texas. Obama swipes Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin. McCain does well to snatch Ohio but Obama manages to eke out victories in Colorado and Nevada. The rest go the way they’ve been predicted to go for months.
But no winner has been declared yet because New Mexico is still counting. Whoever wins New Mexico becomes president (to see various scenarios, click on the slide show below this article). As counting continues, it becomes clear that the margin of victory will be razor thin -- a few thousand, maybe even a few hundred votes.
Hold that thought.
The Anthony office of the Obama campaign occupies an inconspicuous property on Anthony Drive about 15 miles west of El Paso. But its volunteers are confident about the role it could play in the presidential election.
“No one has ever targeted this area before,” Nita Tabet, enthusiastically informs me. Tabet is a volunteer leader at the office. The office is full by 10 a.m. on Saturday morning. Volunteers are preparing to go out and target key neighborhoods, handing out Obama leaflets and registering voters.
“(El) Pasoans are the heart and soul of our office,” says Tabet. Indeed as you walk in, a big sign tacked to the wall reads “Welcome Pasoans.” New Mexico is certainly not the only swing state. Nevertheless it may be the hinge upon which the whole election may swing. And it's these "Pasoans" who could give it the deciding push.
Whoever wins New Mexico will get all five of its Electoral College votes. In 2004 Bush took the state by only 6,000 votes -- less than 1 percent. In 2000 Gore won New Mexico by a mere 350 votes
“Every vote counts, every vote's gonna help,” says UTEP student Christian Cox. Indeed, every vote really does count in New Mexico.
So far, the Anthony office has registered nearly 500 voters, knocked on more than 6,000 doors and is making 12,000 phone calls a month. These are small numbers in and of themselves, but they could be vitally significant in a tight contest.
“It’s a numbers game,” explains Tabet. The goal is to target “sporadic voters.” Such voters may decide who the next president is – and it is El Pasoans who are registering them, informing them and influencing them.
The picture is very different across the state line. CNN predicts that McCain will beat Obama by over 15 points in Texas.
“El Paso might be blue but Texas sure isn’t,” says Daniel Baca, a volunteer leader at the Anthony office. But El Paso Democrats feel they can make a difference in New Mexico.
Baca reckons that so far up to 150 El Pasoans have contributed their time and energy to the Obama campaign in Dona Ana County:
“John Padalino (who runs Obama’s campaign office in El Paso) has been great for recruiting volunteers,” he says. Indeed Daniel Saenz, 20, explained how he had shown up at the El Paso office, but was sent over to Anthony to help register voters.
The reasoning is elementary. Baca estimates that 90 percent of people they have registered will vote for Obama.
“It a pretty simple call,” says Xavier Miranda, another volunteer leader. “Texas won’t go Democrat in this election but a number of states including Colorado and Nevada could. New Mexico is part of the plan. It’s our number one priority.”
The logic is shared by Debbie Hall, who has given up her weekend to campaign in New Mexico: “If you're going to have an impact on the election, then you need to be working in a battleground state and this is the closest one.”
Most volunteers here think that in the future, Texas will be a Democratic state. Until then, Miranda says, “El Pasoans have been put in a unique situation where we can to help Obama win. Talk about making a significant impact."
But El Paso Democrats aren’t alone in concentrating on New Mexico. Ivette Barajas is a local communications director for McCain’s campaign. She spoke to me about the Republicans Party’s “strong volunteer base” and “stellar grassroots organization” in the Las Cruces region.
But they haven’t been seen in Dona Ana County, according to the Anthony Obama office.
“I haven’t seen a single Republican on the ground here,” Baca told me that he believes the Republicans have reached their “saturation point” in the county: “If you’re a Republican here you’re probably already registered and already decided.”
I press him on this point – is he suggesting that Republican volunteers aren’t registering voters out here because they’d be (more-or-less) registering Obama voters?
“Basically,” he replies wryly.
But Barajas thinks differently.
“We have a very solid base who are sending the McCain message throughout,” she said.
On the subject of pro-Obama El Pasoans coming into New Mexico, she thinks “it just shows the Democrats need help from other states."
The Republicans in New Mexico need no such help. While El Paso Republicans have donated considerable sums to the McCain campaign, they are not donating manpower.
“We have our own natives already here,” points out Barajas. She believes this gives the Republicans a considerable advantage in New Mexico. “When you know the state, when you’re a native you can relate to your fellow community members better.”
That seems a fair point. But the line between “native New Mexican” and “El Pasoan” isn’t that straightforward.
I spoke with two ladies in Anthony who were New Mexico residents but had spent 25 years living and working in El Paso before retiring to the countryside. As strategically intriguing as the electoral map portrays New Mexico, it isn’t what motivates them. At 69 and 73, it is for both of them the first time they have been involved in a campaign.
Lisa Woodall cites Obama’s “message of building partnerships” as her motivation. Barbara Pellegrino is less certain.
“I don’t know what I’m doing," Mrs. Pellegrino admits. “You’re standing up!” Mrs Woodall states cheerfully. “There you go,” replies Mrs Pellegrino. “I guess it’s the only patriotic thing to do.”
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To reach Ben Wright, write to ben@epmediagroup.com or call 351-0605
