The Lion's Den: Say it ain’t so, Joe!

So it’s the middle of the night Saturday and I'm putzing around on the Internet when I come across Joe Muench’s column in the Sunday edition of the El Paso Times. I’ve always liked Muench because he' a pretty funny writer when he wants to be and seems to be able to dissect and analyze an issue.

Not to start public beef with a guy who has more experience in journalism in his little finger than I will ever have, but I was disappointed in his Sunday piece. I’m hoping it was some intern who just stole Muench’s by-line. Maybe he should contact JJ Armes to see if he can get it back.

Why was I disappointed?

Mostly because it was full of crap.

There was nothing new about the information, or scuttlebutt, as he puts it. It was old information and some of it was pretty far off. Not only is the information weak, but how does a political columnist miss the chance to talk about the biggest, and almost only, race going on the last weekend before the end of early voting and election day? Not a single mention of the Castro-Robinson race.

Say it ain’t so Joe! The information in that piece was so old I’m pretty sure it was written on stone tablets.

Probably the most glaring mistake was the idea that Sergio Lewis was going to take on incumbent El Paso County Commissioner Dan Haggerty. Wrong! If you are going to write about a race, you should at least make sure that the people you are talking about actually live, or as in Dee Margo’s case, plan to live in the same district.

If and when, emphasis on when, Sergio Lewis runs, it will be for Veronica Escobar’s seat on Commissioner’s Court. But there’s a little problem with that.

Escobar, who is absolutely going to run for county judge against Anthony “Let’s talk about swine flu” Cobos, won’t officially announce for the position until the January before the election at the earliest. Any earlier than that, and she’ll have to resign and Cobos would be able to appoint her successor. This would put Escobar at a bit of a disadvantage because that’s a little late to announce, but she’s got name recognition in the county, so it won’t hurt her much.

But it does put Lewis in a bind because he would have to hustle to play catch up based on Escobar’s announcement. He’ll be running against several candidates who already are rumored to be running for Escobar’s vacated seat. Under most circumstances someone like city Rep. Susie Byrd might pass up the chance to run for the office so soon after winning re-election. But she won so easily that it wouldn't surprise me if she took that margin of victory out for a little spin to see what it can do.

Muench says she’s not running, but no career-minded professional passes up on a promotion.

Lewis would make a formidable candidate because he has name recognition and a built-in base to work with, albeit a small base. Two other assets he has are Norma Jean from the commercials and his poetry. Okay, so his poetry isn’t all that much of an asset, but he does seem to have a good sense of humor and some personality, something that will go far with voters.

There’s a couple of other people who could consider a run at county judge who would be interesting, including Barbara Perez and Larry Medina. Neither has officially announced, but you have to figure that both candidates would be able to take advantage of name recognition and a built-in base to work with. Absolutely no mention of either of those potential candidates in the column, but in fairness to him he might not have put it together or got a whiff of it yet.

Perez would be an interesting candidate because she’s someone who strikes a chord with voters, sometimes good, sometimes bad, but either way she’s compelling. She’s already won at several levels including school board, City Council, and Commissioner’s Court. She had a lead going into the run-off that she lost to Judge Cobos and may get fed up with the state of county affairs enough to jump back in. She’s got a daily radio talk show on KHRO 1150 am and a steady audience.

That’s both good and bad for her. Good in the sense that the radio show has kept her name out there and she’s a relevant voice in El Paso’s political theatre, but bad in the sense that she’s stated her opinions on a range of issues that could cloud her message should she decide to run for county judge. Not a big deal, but could be a sticky wicket.

She’s said several times that she wasn’t going to run for office again on her program, but circumstances change in politics. Plus, she left radio once because she was tired and frustrated but came back a short while later. Perez is a political being and the thought of serving again is probably never too far from her mind.

Medina is intriguing because he’s another candidate who has won elections. He has access to campaign money and is a successful business man. He’s never left the political scene, and has grown very well into a behind-the-scenes type of guy who knows how to make alliances.

Escobar has to be the favorite, though. She’s got name recognition, is currently a member of commissioners' court and has taken the lead on a lot of issues that voters will remember. If she runs into any problems, it will be in the valley. State Rep. Norma Chavez has a tremendous amount influence in the valley and if she backs someone like Medina that could be a game changer.

These two races also raise another intriguing situation, the Jaime Factor. Not me, the other one. Jaime O. Perez will undoubtedly put someone up to run for Escobar’s seat, if he doesn’t do it himself. Whoever it is will lose the minute any connection to Perez comes to light, but it’s the inevitable so you might as well plan for it.

But why the complete non-mention of the Castro-Robinson race? This race affects the balance of city council and is pivotal. The person with the most at-stake in this election is city Rep. Eddie Holguin, leader of the conservatives. The current split on council is four progressives, three conservatives, and the swing vote of city Rep. Emma Acosta. With Acosta occasionally siding with the conservatives, it creates a tie and forces the mayor to publicly take a position on issues.

Holguin can’t afford to lose Castro because he’s gone out on a limb for her and spent some political capitol to help her out. The constant drum beat of “rubber stamp” isn’t going to be something Robinson is going to forget if he wins and Holguin will find himself in the situation where he will have to try to mend some fences and work with Robinson.

This week expect to see an unveiling of a new campaign strategy from Castro. She’ll turn up the volume on “The media is out to get me” message, especially after the latest poll was released. In fact, the margin was so heavy in favor of Robinson that I am starting to rethink my selection for a campaign song for Castro.

Maybe it should be “Against All Odds” by Phil Collins.

That’s the real state of scuttlebutt in El Paso.

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Abeytia writes theLionstar blog and is a political animal who spends way too much time traveling the wilds of El Paso politics. Reach him at lionstar@thelionstarblog.com.