The Lion's Den: Handicapping the county judge race

It’s the race that everyone is going to be paying attention to. The highest office in El Paso County government is a big prize and the race is by far the sexiest of the spring election, partially because of the stakes, partially because of factionism, and most of all, because of the personalities that will be involved.

The hard part about handicapping the Judge’s race is the fact that so far, there is only one announced candidate for the job, Sergio Coronado. But one of the things that makes the race so interesting is all the rumors flying around about who’s running, who’s not, and who’s helping who.

So I will focus on some rumored candidates that are, in my estimation, likely to be candidates, in addition to the announced candidate: Barbara Perez, Larry Medina, County Commissioner Veronica Escobar, and County Judge Anthony Cobos.

Pay attention because the connections they have to each other can get confusing, and keeping up with alignments is sort of like keeping up with the storyline in WWE Wrestling.

County Judge Anthony Cobos

Cobos has been a controversial figure since he emerged victorious in the run-off election, coming from behind to beat Barbara Perez who nearly emerged from the general election with enough votes to eliminate the need for a run-off.

Bogged down by being a subject of the on-going FBI Public Corruption Scandal, Cobos has been able to get few of his initiatives passed since he lost his majority on Commissioners' Court when former Commissioner Miguel Teran, also a possible target in the Public Corruption investigation, did not run for re-election and Commissioner Luis Sarinana was defeated by Anna Perez, the current incumbent.

Cobos has had a campaign fundraiser, but there was no announcement as to what office he was running for, though one would assume it would be his reelection. He has now put an item on the County Commissioners' Court to pay for his attorney’s fees relating to the ethics complaint filed against him by city Rep. Emma Acosta...again.

I’m not sure if he’s wanting the county to pay for the lawyers defending him in the allegation, or for their services in putting forward a similar complaint against Commissioner Veronica Escobar.

It’s no secret that Cobos doesn’t like Escobar and sees her as a threat. They’ve had an adversarial relationship on the court for some time now and he referred to Escobar and Perez, as “rabid dogs” at the Aug. 17 meeting of Commissioners' Court.

Rumors have been going around since last December that Cobos was going to resign and try to appoint his own replacement. First the rumor was Jaime O. Perez, who is Cobos' chief of staff, and that has since evolved into a couple of other incarnations of the same rumor, involving variously Coronado and Perez. What makes that so interesting is that Cobos defeated both Coronado and Perez in the last election. Coronado endorsed Cobos following his defeat.

Perez, who has held several elected offices and is currently a talk show host on 1150am, was a pretty heated rival of Cobos. But their relationship began to thaw as of late, with Cobos choosing to be a guest on her show. Perez and Cobos also have a common denominator, Theresa Caballero.

Caballero represented Cobos in the Ethics Complaint process and in the complaint Cobos filed against Escobar. She is also a frequent guest on Perez’s show. If there was a person that could broker a deal between Cobos and Perez, it would be Caballero.

But it is unlikely that there is any truth behind the rumors of Cobos appointing anyone to be his successor. First, the rumor is predicated on Cobos resigning and other than a few rumors, there is not much out there that points to Cobos leaving office. Secondly, it’s predicated on Cobos getting enough votes to make it happen. He needs three votes and he will undoubtedly look to Commissioner Dan Haggerty for support. Together with his own vote, that would make two.

He’d have to get Commissioner Willie Gandara to go along with his selection. Gandara does not like being put in the middle of stuff like that. Plus, Gandara is sometimes the swing vote on Commissioners' Court, but he usually allies with Escobar and Perez.

So if the rumors are not true about Cobos resigning, that leaves the other question. Will he run for reelection? Cobos has left political observers scratching their head because there are no signs out there either way. Conventional wisdom says he would have announced by now considering he’s had a fund-raiser, one of his biggest political rivals is a probable opponent (more on that below), and Sergio Coronado has already announced his candidacy.

But then again, Cobos is not a conventional guy.

So let’s suppose Cobos does run for reelection. He’s a hard worker, but his chances are slim to none, and none just got subpoenaed. Witnesses during the general election held earlier this year in Horizon City said Cobos berated a campaign volunteer and drove off in the wrong direction when Cobos saw some literature that mentioned Cobos and the Public Corruption probe. If he’s losing it over something little like that, he’s likely to have several more episodes like that along the campaign trail for reelection.

Cobos is a tough campaigner and is not shy about doing the tough grassroots activities needed to win a race in El Paso County, but he’s just got too much baggage to carry around and will likely not be reelected.

Sergio Coronado

Which may be part of the reason Coronado has come out so early against Cobos. Another reason is probably because Coronado has limited name recognition. Coronado is a long-time attorney known in the legal community and some political circles, but not well known among the constituency.

Coronado sits on the Canutillo school board and has strong name ID on the Westside of the county, but he has a lot of ground to make up on the Eastside of the County and in the Valley. Coronado was a recent guest on the Paul Strelzin show on KHRO 1150am and a caller put it pretty succinctly. The caller lives on the Westside but works in San Elizario and says that in the Valley, no one has heard of Coronado. That demonstrates what Coronado is up against.

But it’s also the easiest hurdle to overcome. He just needs to be more visible in that community and make some key alliances. More on that later.

Coronado will certainly be a strong candidate and formidable foe for the front runner. In fact Coronado, despite the lack of name ID in the Valley, is the front runner at this point. He’s run a county race before and knows what to expect. He came out first and has more than six months to work at getting known. The biggest threat to Coronado is a rumored candidate who can’t announce until January at the earliest, which gives Coronado five months head start.

Coronado’s biggest advantage is money. He can fund his own race and doesn’t have to rely on contributions as much as the other rumored candidates with the exception of one probable candidate, Medina.

Money is extremely important in this race not only because it is a necessary evil, but because it’s been in short supply over the last year and a half in every election, except for Melina Castro. She was able to make it rain in the Northeast.

But Coronado does have some disadvantages too.

First is his endorsement of Cobos. Coronado has the answer for this you’d expect from a lawyer, that he went with the best choice at the time and weighted heavily the fact that Cobos has more formal education than Perez, but he’s got to work on it if he wants it to resonate with voters. Coronado’s opponents will likely tie Coronado to Cobos as much as they can. It won’t be hard to do that either because if you lay out a few facts in the timeline that they occurred, it’s pretty easy to make things look bad for Coronado.

Here’s the timeline from the last election for County Judge. Coronado loses to Cobos, Coronado endorses Cobos over Perez, Coronado’s wife gets a job in District Clerk Gilbert Sanchez’s office (Sanchez has been indicted in the same Public Corruption case).

So I asked Coronado about his wife’s employment.

Clearly I hit a nerve. Coronado’s demeanor instantly changed and he became extremely defense lawyer with me. But that’s not surprising, what guy wouldn’t defend his wife if he perceived she was being attacked? Coronado didn’t shy away from the question and told me that his wife’s employment had absolutely nothing to do with his endorsement of Cobos.

Plus, it was just an entry-level job, so it is highly unlikely that there was any type of deal made; if there was, it would have been the worst political payback in the history of political paybacks.

Coronado’s wife Cathy also had something to say about the issue: “The idea that I would need help getting an entry-level job is insulting. I wanted to go back to work and the courthouse is an environment I was used to being in. It’s hurtful that people would imply that I can’t get a job on my own qualifications. ”

Cathy Coronado says she did billing for the County to the AG’s office and only worked for the County a short time. She informed me that her brother-in-law also works at the county.

Sergio Coronado has been pitching himself as someone who gets along well with people, but his nature betrays that message. I noticed he got a little hot under the collar when pushed by a couple of callers when he was on with Strelzin. His demeanor-change when I asked about his wife’s employment was another example. As the campaign heats up, the intensity of the campaign will also heat up and Coronado has to go against his inner-lawyer and have thicker skin if he wants voters to believe he really is capable of getting along with people.

Coronado seemed like he was one step away from losing his temper and it was a relatively light conversation. What happens when he gets in a forum a month away from election day? Will he be the second-coming of Cobos and lose it, or will he channel his inner lawyer and deliver a passionate message?

Another problem for Coronado is the development of a base. He has limited name recognition and so far, a small base to work from. The other major challengers have established bases to work from that are larger than Coronado’s. Coronado said that more people know him now than before, but that is largely anecdotal at this point.

Coronado says that being an attorney is one of his major qualifications for the seat and he believes that having a strong understanding of the law is key. It’s also easy for opponents to make the argument that Coronado is the least qualified for the job. Cobos, Perez, Medina, and Escobar all have actual experience on Commissioner’s Court, Coronado doesn’t.

So Coronado has some issues to deal with, but the good news for him is that it is all stuff that can be fixed. The real challenge will be clearly defining his platform and stance on issues. Can he connect with voters, can he create a relationship with people outside of the Westside, and will he be specific about issues on the campaign trail?

Larry Medina

Larry Medina is currently in Cancun on a honeymoon with his new bride, Ruth. But I was able to contact him and I asked him if he planned on running for County Judge. Medina said, “We've (myself, family, close friends & supporters) been thinking, planning & preparing for that particular race since October of last year. I originally planned to announce this past June but a series of unexpected and, fortunately, very positive events have caused us to delay the announcement until September.”

Medina has lost a few races before and that will be the knock on him. But as Carl Robinson demonstrated, it’s possible to come back from adversity.

Medina has a compelling story, which is one of the reasons I personally like the guy. He’s a barrio kid who grew up in the projects of Segundo Barrio to become a successful businessman and public servant. He has a lovely wife and is expecting a child. He’s an easy-going guy who is good at making fun of himself.

Over the last year Medina has been upping his profile in political circles and attending more and more events. He’s quietly been building several alliances and helping out on other campaigns. He worked closely with city Rep. Emma Acosta and has been attending meetings of the Camino Real Mexican-American Democrats, which is a group closely aligned with state Rep. Norma Chavez. The time will soon come when he calls in all those favors.

In terms of assets, Medina has money, connections, and name recognition. He has the highest profile of all the candidates in the Valley, and that means a lot in a countywide race that will be dominated by turnout from Democrats.

Medina has some issues to deal with that will no doubt resurface, namely the plane crash he was in with former County Commissioner and current political insider Carlos Aguilar and some architects who had done business with the city. Medina can expect that issue to be raised repeatedly in campaign mailers, talk radio, and the El Paso blogosphere. He's also been in the middle of some vicious fighting on the Housing Authority board that involved various factions, including Mayor John Cook (who gave him a Conquistador Award recently at the urging of Acosta). But Medina’s biggest issue is his tendency to lose campaign momentum near the end.

Medina isn’t the only rumored candidate with that problem.

Barbara Perez

The talk show diva of the midday, KHRO’s radio show personality and former City Rep, former School Board Trustee, former Count Commissioner, and current member of the University Medical Center Board, is yet another rumored candidate for County Judge.

During a recent fill-in for Perez, Chavez stated that Perez was planning a run for County Judge and there have been whispers in political circles and on-air innuendo. Chavez filling in for Perez is surprising in and of itself if you remember the fact that Perez was one of the most outspoken supporters for Hillary Clinton and Chavez was Obama’s surrogate in El Paso.

So I decided to contact Perez and ask her for myself if she was a candidate for County Judge.

“I have no comment on that at this time.” Perez replied.

Which sounds suspiciously like she’s going to run, or at least hasn’t ruled it out at this point. If Perez had no intention of running, she would have taken the many opportunities that have crossed her path to dispel the rumor. If she announced candidacy for the position, two things would have to happen. She’d have to give up her show and if she won, she’d have to give up her seat on the University Medical Center Board.

Perez was nominated to the board by County Commissioner Gandara, which would also feed into the aforementioned rumors about Perez as a possible replacement for Cobos because Cobos would have an easier time convincing Gandara to vote for someone Gandara has already appointed to a board.

Perez has a lot going for her in terms of a candidate. She has experience in county government, has run several successful campaigns before and is fearless. Perez has a good reputation in the Democratic Party for participating and being a team player. She immediately moved to support Obama after Clinton dropped out and many party elders followed her lead. Of course the obvious advantage is that Perez is a Latina and there are more women voters in El Paso than male. Women voters tend to side with women candidates. Recent history shows that when a Latina is in the race, she’s going to win.

Except for the fact that the last viable Latina candidate in a race in El Paso who failed to win happens to have been Barbara Perez.

Perez has more of an uphill battle to face. Opponents will no doubt raise the issue of political ADD. Perez has a tendency to serve in one office and have an eye out for the next. Voters turned back Jose Alejandro Lozano when he did the same thing and will likely not cut Perez any slack.

The Field of Dreams issue will come up as well and Perez will spend a great deal of time smoothing that one over with voters and will have to do it without the benefit of a talk radio audience. Perez began to lobby on behalf of Field of Dreams very shortly after she left office as a County Commissioner, an issue that raised a lot of ethical questions.

Speaking of her talk radio gig, the fact that Perez has had a talk radio show is a mixed blessing. On the one hand, she has regular exposure on the air waves, but on the other hand, she opens herself up to criticism about things she’s said or positions she’s taken.

But it’s easy for me to root for a person like Perez, despite the fact that she’s considerably more conservative than my tastes. I like strong women because I came from one. Perez is an underdog who was a young mother who had a rough time of things early in life yet she persevered, became a successful public servant, and has a couple of kids with a college education. Coronado will no doubt go after Perez for not having a degree, but a degree does not equate to intelligence. Perez has life and political experience you can’t learn in a book or sitting in a classroom.

Plus, the thing I admire most about Perez is that she tells it like she sees it and is completely unapologetic about it. You have to admire that courage.

Questions for a possible Perez campaign include her ability to fundraise and most importantly, her ability to finish a campaign. One well-founded criticism of Perez stems from her loss to Cobos. Going in to the run-off, Perez almost had enough votes to eliminate the need for a run-election and ends up losing to the guy in distant second place who was coming off an embarrassing loss for city council.

There are a lot of ways to explain how that happened, but at the end of the day it comes down to the candidate and their campaign team.

Commissioner Veronica Escobar

In my mind, Escobar is the front runner at this point, despite the fact that she can’t announce her candidacy until January. Escobar has had to deal with rumors of a possible run for County Judge almost from the minute she took office, so the rumors of a possible run are nothing new.

When I asked Escobar about a possible run she replied, “I am weighing all of my options for the March election…I love being at the County and want to finish the work I have started…”

Escobar has all the tools to be the next County Judge. She has the ability to fundraise, she knows how to run a grassroots campaign, she has strong name ID, and is generally liked in the community. Escobar is bright, articulate, knowledgeable on the issues, dynamic, and most importantly, authentic.

She’s one of the few elected officials in town that I have never seen angry, upset, confused, or compromised by a question, foe, colleague, or constituent. She does a good job of keeping it together, even if the person disagrees on policy.

There will always be segment of people who dislike a particular elected official, like the same sort of people who hate the smartest kid in class, the most popular guy in school, or the head cheerleader.

But Escobar’s biggest problem is time. She will only have three months to make up ground on the rest of the field who will probably start making things official in September. The good news for Escobar is that the average voter doesn’t start paying attention until around that time anyway.

Escobar has, and will, continue to receive criticism for all but announcing she’s running for office and has only avoided doing so in order to avoid having to give up her seat on Commissioner’s Court.

The biggest unknown is how Escobar will do in terms of grassroots effort in the Valley. How organized will she be? How will she be received by voters? These are unknowns because Escobar hasn’t been in a tight race before and this time will no doubt be in one because of the number of suspected candidates.

Escobar will have to gear up for the inevitable. Some candidates won’t be running for County Judge as much as running against Commissioner Escobar. Being the front-runner means she’s going to have a target on her back for a long time.

The X Factor

There is one X Factor in the race that could potentially determine who wins, or at the very least, who is competitive. No one wins a county-wide race without a strong showing in the Valley. The Valley is a prized jewel because of the fact that there are a vast number of votes and they are almost all Democrat. Most of the candidates, if not all, are weak in the Valley.

So for any one of them to break out from the pack, they will need some help along the way.

For Perez, Coronado, or Medina, that help might come from the People’s Rep, Norma Chavez. I know, I know, this is the part where some of you start rolling your eyes and say I am a big homer for Chavez. But wake up and smell the chorizo. There are plenty of valid criticisms one can make about Chavez but if you know anything about Valley politics you know that Chavez is very influential and gets people to the polls to vote the way she wants them too.

You can outspend Chavez, you can outsmart Chavez, you can outtalk Chavez, but there is one thing that you can’t do. You can’t outwork Chavez. She cut her teeth as an organizer so she knows how to get little old ladies to go to the polls and punch the button she wants them too. How many people do you know that can chew out staffers or volunteers and have them come back the next morning bright and early to hit the pavement again? Not out of fear, but out of respect.

The question isn’t IF Chavez becomes involved, the question is who does she back? God knows it won’t be Escobar.

So who will benefit from an alliance with Chavez? Will it be Coronado who needs help in the Valley the most? Will it be a former rival and current ally Barbara Perez, or will it be another barrio Chicano like Larry Medina?

When the legislative session started, Chavez and state Rep. Joe Pickett called themselves Fred and Ginger. So who does Chavez dance with in this election?

Strap in folks, this is going to be a good one.

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Abeytia writes the Lionstar blog and is a political animal who spends way too much time traveling the wilds of El Paso politics. Reach him at lionstar@thelionstarblog.com.